It will come as no surprise to learn that Equiratings, the Irish statistics company, makes the reigning European champions Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo favourites to lift this year’s MARS Badminton Horse Trials trophy and first prize of £117,600.
However, the multiple deciding factors and uncertainties that make up the fascinating three-phase sport of eventing are reflected in the fact that the 2023 winners and Olympic gold medallists are only 36% likely to win, according to Equiratings’ calculations. The 2024 Burghley victors have a 55% chance of finishing in the top three and a 73% chance of being in the top 10.
Ros’s Paris team mates Tom McEwen and JL Dublin, twice runners-up at Kentucky, are the second favourites, at 14%, 29% and 47% respectively.
Next comes Emily King and Valmy Biats, New Zealand combination Tim Price and Vitali, the Burghley runners-up, and Gemma Stevens with Jalapeno.
Oliver Townend’s two greys, the great five-star veteran Ballaghmor Class, a dual winner of Burghley, and the lovely mare Cooley Rosalent, winner of Kentucky last year, are obviously in the frame and all eyes will be on the MARS Badminton debut of world champion Yasmin Ingham, riding Rehy DJ.
Bubby Upton, who made such a heroic return from injury last year, and Cola, plus Gemma Stevens with Chilli Knight make up Equiratings’ top 10. Both Gemma’s rides are by the 2015 winning stallion, Chilli Morning (ridden by William Fox-Pitt).
This year’s star-studded field includes seven five-star winning combinations: the defending champions Caroline Powell and Greenacres Special Cavalier, Oliver Townend’s two horses, Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo, Gemma Stevens and Chilli Knight, winners of Bicton CCI5*-L in 2021, Belgium’s Lara De Liedekerke-Meier and Hooney d’Arville, who triumphed at Luhmuhlen last year and Ireland’s Austin O’ Connor and Colorado Blue (Maryland, 2023).
Four more riders have tasted CCI5*-L victory on different horses: Tim and Jonelle Price, Felix Vogg and Laura Collett.
Ryuzo Kitajima, a member of the first Japanese team to win an Olympic medal, bronze, is competing at Badminton for the first time, with Feroza Nieuwmoed.
The youngest rider is first-timer Tom Woodward, 23, and the oldest is Kiwi Olympian Joe Meyer, 54, who returns to Badminton for the first time in 15 years.
Fifteen nations are represented: Great Britain, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Lithuania, New Zealand, Portugal, Switzerland and USA.
Seven of the top 10 in the FEI World Rankings are competing here: Tom McEwen (world number 2), Harry Meade (3), Tim Price (4), Ros Canter (5), Laura Collett (7), Felix Vogg (9) and Lara De Liedekerke-Meier (10).
Photo: Ros Canter, winner of the Hiho Silver Best Dressed Lady award at yesterday’s first Horse Inspection, presenting Lordships Graffalo